Is USMLE Step 1 now pass/fail?

Yes — since January 2022, USMLE Step 1 results are reported as pass or fail only, with no numeric score. The pass/fail threshold is set by the USMLE program. This change was intended to reduce the emphasis on Step 1 in residency selection and encourage broader medical education.

What NBME self-assessment score predicts passing Step 1?

Historically, an NBME self-assessment score of 20 or above (on the 0–26 scale) was associated with strong Step 1 pass probability. UWorld QBank completion rates above 80% with scores above 60% correct are also positive predictors. The most predictive single factor is the most recent NBME form taken within two weeks of the exam.

USMLE Step 1 Pass Probability Estimator

Formula Definitions

The USMLE Step 1 Pass Probability Estimator works by applying a well-defined formula to the values you enter. Understanding the formula behind the calculation helps you interpret the result and check that your inputs are correct. Below we break down the key components that drive the USMLE Step 1 Pass Rate.

The core formula used by this calculator is:

Result = f(inputs, settings)

Each variable in the formula has a specific meaning:

inputs — Values entered into the USMLE Step 1 Pass Rate.
settings — Options, units, or parameters that adjust how the calculation is performed.
Result — Computed output for the chosen inputs and settings.

How to Use This Calculator

Enter the required values. Enter the required values into the USMLE Step 1 Pass Probability Estimator input fields.

Adjust settings. Adjust any settings, select applicable options, or choose units as needed.

Calculate the result. Press Calculate to compute the result using the underlying formula.

Interpret the output. Review and interpret your result using the provided context, reference ranges, or explanatory notes.

Glossary and Definitions

Input

A value entered into the calculator to be processed.

Output

The computed result returned by the calculator for the given inputs.

Setting

An option that adjusts how the calculation is performed, such as unit selection or mode.

USMLE Step 1 pass rate

A key concept referenced by the USMLE Step 1 Pass Rate: Estimate pass/fail probability for USMLE Step 1 based on NBME shelf exam scores, UWorld QBank percentage, and self-assessment exam results.

NBME shelf score

A key concept referenced by the USMLE Step 1 Pass Rate: Estimate pass/fail probability for USMLE Step 1 based on NBME shelf exam scores, UWorld QBank percentage, and self-assessment exam results.

Medical licensing exam

A key concept referenced by the USMLE Step 1 Pass Rate: Estimate pass/fail probability for USMLE Step 1 based on NBME shelf exam scores, UWorld QBank percentage, and self-assessment exam results.

UWorld QBank

A key concept referenced by the USMLE Step 1 Pass Rate: Estimate pass/fail probability for USMLE Step 1 based on NBME shelf exam scores, UWorld QBank percentage, and self-assessment exam results.

USMLE Step 1 Pass Probability Estimator

Formula Definitions

How to Use This Calculator

Glossary and Definitions

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Frequently Asked Questions