What is the 4% rule based on?

The Trinity Study (1998) analyzed all historical 30-year periods. A 4% initial withdrawal rate, adjusted for inflation, succeeded in 95%+ of periods with a balanced portfolio.

Should I adjust for current market conditions?

Yes. In low-expected-return environments, 3-3.5% may be more appropriate. Variable withdrawal strategies like Guyton-Klinger can improve flexibility.

What spending adjustments help portfolio longevity?

Cut 10% in bad market years, avoid withdrawals after large drawdowns, keep 1-2 years of expenses in cash, and have a floor of essential spending from Social Security or annuities.

Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator

Calculate sustainable annual withdrawal from a retirement portfolio. Based on the Trinity Study: 4% succeeded 95%+ of 30-year periods with 50-75% stock portfolios.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the 4% rule based on?

Should I adjust for current market conditions?

What spending adjustments help portfolio longevity?