Estimate recession probability from the slope of the yield curve (10-year minus 2-year or 3-month Treasury spread) using the Federal Reserve Bank of New York model.
| Constant | Symbol | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Speed of light | c | 2.99792458×10⁸ |
| Planck's constant | h | 6.62607015×10⁻³‴ |
| Boltzmann constant | kʙ | 1.380649×10⁻²³ |
| Avogadro's number | Nₐ | 6.02214076×10²³ |
| Gravitational constant | G | 6.6743×10⁻¹¹ |
| Gas constant | R | 8.31446 |
| Elementary charge | e | 1.602176634×10⁻¹⁹ |
| Electron mass | mₑ | 9.1093837015×10⁻³¹ |
| Proton mass | mₚ | 1.67262192369×10⁻²⁷ |
| Fine-structure constant | α | 7.2973525693×10⁻³ |
Estimate recession probability from the slope of the yield curve (10-year minus 2-year or 3-month Treasury spread) using the Federal Reserve Bank of New York model
Each component has a specific meaning:
Note: Interpret the yield curve recession result against the clinical thresholds and context described above.
Enter the slope of the yield curve for the patient or scenario you are assessing. Estimate recession probability from the slope of the yield curve (10-year minus 2-year or 3-month Treasury spread) using the Federal Reserve Bank of New York model. Use the yield curve recession result to inform your clinical assessment.